North–East Region of India:In search of Peace and Stability

North–East Region of India:In search of Peace and Stability

(Dr Nand Kishor Kumar)


Introduction

There are two conflicting views about insurgency in the Northeast region: first, it is still the most serious threat to the internal dimension of national security. Second, the situation in the region is changing fast, it is as good or bad as any other part of India and hence the insurgency is no longer a serious threat as used to be earlier.
An attempt is made here to analyze the changing pattern, ground reality and overall dimensions of internal security in the Northeast region. It also aims at finding the extent/level of under-going progress in the region in view of threats on national security.
The North-East region of India is comprised of seven states as popularly known as ‘seven sisters’, namely Assam, Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Tripura. Except Manipur and Tripura (both were separate princely states during British Rule), all other members of the seven sisters were parts of undivided Assam for a fairly long time even after independence. As regards Sikkim, it is neither geographically contiguous nor it maintains socio–cultural, political, historical and economic relationship with seven sisters. Hence, it cannot be included as a part of this region despite its location near the same area.
Most of the states of this region are rich in natural resources with fertile land, rich forest, water resources, oil and petroleum, small-scale traditional industries at village level based on locally available raw materials, and considerable mineral deposits, including hydrocarbons apart from advance culture, art, music, dance, historical heritage, high literacy rate etc.
However, the development in the region has lagged behind the rest of the country due to historical reasons and geographical location. Most of the states are basically agrarian and industrially backward. They have poor infrastructure and high unemployment rate. Transport linkage and connectivity, both within the region and with the rest of the country, are still woefully inadequate. Being landlocked and having inhospitable terrain has also limited the expansion of marketing avenues.
In this situation, numerous insurgent groups have cropped up in this region. Therefore, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says about insurgency as “problematic and worrisome” and according to the Home Minister p. Chidambaram, “ There has not been much progress,” in the North-East in view of undergoing action against insurgency.1 The insurgency in the Northeast region is considered a serious threat to the national security. More than 50,000 people have lost their lives due to the insurgency alone since 1947.
However, the fact at the grass-root level is that the insurgency does not affect the Northeast in its entirety as it is confined to a few pockets only. Supporting this view P. R. Kyndiah, the Minister for Tribal Affairs and Development of North-Eastern States, Govt. of India, argues that “ You can not paint the entire Northeast region with a single brush. There is need to look at this beautiful and resource rich region in a correct perspective. Economic and social compulsions have rendered some parts of the region vulnerable to rising ethnically, insurgency, crime and political instability.”2
With reference to a Research Project completed/compiled by PL Sanjeev and PC Shekar Reddy on Northeast Region, PR Kyndiah further emphasized that “ The finding that 71.23% of the villages of the region have been totally crime free for several years is indeed a revelation. The reasons for their remaining violence free are equally significant. The close-3knit social fabric, respect for traditional value and ethos and age-old democratic institutions are object lessons not only for other parts of the Northeast but also for rest of the country. At a time when the so-called developed societies are prone to unrest due to intolerance and societal imbalances, the crime free villages can serve as a role model, deserving admiration and emulation…They are focused on what they think is best suited to them. It is observed that they aspire for peace, economic development, proper infrastructure, transparent administration and good and clean governance without impairing their values, traditions and ethos, which they treasure.”3
Taking into account the findings of the research referred by Kyndiah as mentioned above, the state-wise scenario of both crime prone and crime free villages unfolds refreshing vistas that dispel the misplaced perception that the entire region is prone to violence.
In this background, let us see the ground level reality of each state.

Assam
A stream of immigrants from upper Burma invaded Assam in 1228 A.D. and continued to rule till the British came to occupy the region in 1826. The invaders belonged to the Shan dynasty and called themselves ‘Tai’ (celestial origin) but popularly known as ‘Ahoms’, the origin of the term Assam (as per Sanskrit word ‘A-sam,’ means unequal). The region was earlier known as Pragjyotishpur or Kamrup as referred in Ramayana, Mahabharata and other classical literatures.
Besides Ahom kingdom, the Northeast region had also witnessed the rise of several independent political formations during the medieval period like the kingdom of Koch, Cacher, Jayintia, Manipur, Tripura and many other small vassal states. There were other hill tribes too, such as the Dafalas, Miris, Nagas, Khamptis, Singphos, Mishmis etc who maintained distinct identities and political independence.4
However, the two most dominant kingdoms of Ahom and Koch were able to influence the region in a very significant manner over centuries in the east and the west of the region respectively. These two kingdoms enjoyed a continuous existence for a long period of time. They also maintained their political independence against repeated attacks by none other than the mighty Mughals until the East India Company appeared on the scene in 1826.
The Ahoms did not enter India through its northeast frontiers with an expansionist design. They never wanted to be a colonial power. There long survival, as a monolithic dynasty cannot be brushed aside as a mere historical accident. Indeed, it was a glorious period of medieval Indian history. The Ahom period witnessed a remarkable cultural unification of the region with the mainstream Indian ethos. The Assamese creativity and development of Assamese culture and literature had reached its zenith during this period under the leadership of Sri Sankardeva. There may be a very little material trade between Assam and the rest of India during this period, but there was a lot of intellectual interactions.
From cultural point of view the Ahoms rule was also liberal and broad based. The Ahoms never tried to impose their views, their religion and culture and their language on the tribes they ruled in Assam. Instead, they tried to merge completely with the local culture and traditions. This attitude was purely political and strategic, as it would have been otherwise possible for the minority migrant class to maintain their domination over a large number of people with such varied cultures. The development of a common language was also essential for the establishment of a steady political system. The Ahoms realized this extremely well and thus helped develop Assamese as a common language in the region. Their acceptance of Hinduism and the introduction of Assamese language to replace the Tai language in the Ahom Court cannot be explained by any other reasoning. Further, by treating the subdued tribes as equals and encouraging intermarriage, the Ahoms significantly contributed to the formation of nascent Assamese nation-state. Social stratification was gradually broken as non-Ahoms families admitted into Ahom fold and were given status and privileges bestowed on nobles. Even Muslims did not suffer any disabilities on account of their religious faith. A large number of Muslims were in several departments of the state. This deliberate policy, whereby Ahoms assimilated themselves, was a major reason for the formation of an Assamese society free from caste, prejudices, which was further strengthen by the equalizing impact of the Vaishanava movement. It helped the Ahoms adopt a policy of decentralization of powers with powerful central authority. All the small powers subordinated to the Ahom kingdom provided a unified front in times of emergency posed by an external threat.5
However, the dynasty that can take pride in ruling over many centuries in the midst of repeated attacks by the Mughal Empire and which was often thought to be inviolable, eventually collapsed due to internal disorders like:
1. The insurrection of the Moamorias (they belong to Vaishnava sect founded by Anirudha Dev, a Kalita by caste-a low social rank like Doms, Kacharis etc. who played an important role in the downfall of the Ahoms rule).
2. The rebellion of the Darrang Prince.
3. The depredations of the Burkendazes.
4. Local chieftains raising their heads and assuming virtual independence.
5. The frontier tribes carrying on with the plunder of Assamese villages.6

The long civil war and internal disorders brought the end of the rule of Ahoms and the people, in general, therefore, welcomed with great respite the entry of the British rule into the political scenario of Assam in 1826. When British rule ended in 1947, Assam became a full-fledged state of India and the process of cultural, political and economic integration with India was complete.
Subsequently the process of the break up of Assam began and the parts of this state emerged as separate states like Nagaland, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh including. Currently the area of Assam is 78,438 sq.km. and the population is 26,638,407. Insurgency dates back to formation of United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) in April 1981. Since then, several insurgent groups have cropped up, mostly claming to represent their respective communities. The National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), for instance, is standing for a sovereign Bodo state. Assam currently has eight active militant groups, such as, ULFA, Karbi Longry NC Hills Liberation Front (LNLF), All Adivasi National Liberation Army, Dima Halam Daoga (Jewe) aka Black Widow, Kuki Revolutionary Army, Hmar Peoples Conventions (Democratic), Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA), Harkat-ul-Mujahideen.
Apart from these, there are six groups, including a faction each of the ULFA and IDFB, in ceasefire. The other four are: United People’s Democratic Solidarity, Adivasi Cobra Militant Force, Birsa Commando Force and Dima Halam Daogah (DHD).
In Assam there were 248 insurgency-related incidents in 2007, as many as 207 in 2008 and 221 in first five month of 2009. While 132 civilians were killed in 2007, 93 were killed in 2008 and 83 in the first five months of 2009.
The problem of militancy in Assam has its origin in the large-scale migration of refugees from East Pakistan (Bangladesh) since India’s partition in 1947. A continuous flow of illegal migration across the border has disturbed the local demography and brought much of India’s Northeast to the knife-edge of violence.
Apart from ULFA, the emergence of a Bodo insurgency in Assam had become another major problem. However, in Feb 2003, the Bodo Tribal Council was made as a result of the tripartite accord between the center, Assam govt. and Bodo Liberation Tiger and on May 24, 2005 the ceasefire agreement was signed.
Nagaland
The Ahom rule was bounded on the southeast by the Patkai range of mountain inhabited by Nagas, comprised of a diversity of tribes, each speaking its own language and calling itself by a distinctive name, but collectively known as the Nagas. The Ahoms had never subjugated the Nagas, although they were under the sovereignty of the Ahom rule. But it was subjugated by the British rule in 1866 and formed a district under Assam. Nagaland became a state in 1963 under India. The area of the state is 16,579 sq.km. and the population is 1,988,636.
Nagland’s history of insurgency dates back to August 14, 1947 when AZ Phizo, founder of the Naga National Council hoisted the flag for ‘Independent Nagaland’. Since then several organizations with the same objective have been born. Right now the state has two major groups: National Socialist Council of Nagalim (IM) and National Socialist Council of Nagalim (k). While both the groups are under a ceasefire agreement with the government, the situation continues to remain troublesome. Meanwhile, the main insurgent group of Nagaland is engaged in dialogue with the central govt. in search of lasting peace. Sufficient time is required to defuse the old problem started immediately after the independence of the country.

Nagaland has recorded 128 insurgency-related incidents in 2007 as many as 145 in 2008 and 56 till May 2009. Twenty one civilians were killed in 2007, 35 in 2008 and 2 till May 2009.
Meghalaya
It is comprised of three distinct tracts of regions, namely Garo, Khasi and Jaintia hills, the vassal states under the two rulers, Garo king and Jaintia king, which were brought under British rule of Assam in 1869 and 1835 respectively. After the independence of India it became a separate state on January 1, 1972. Earlier, it was a part of the composite state of Assam. Its area is 22,429 sq.km. and the population 2,306,069.
Meghalaya has been plagued with problem of insurgency since the latter part of the 1980s. It has three terrorist outfits operating on its soil, such as, Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC), Achik National Volunteer Council (ANVC), and the Peoples Liberation Front of Meghalaya (PLFM). In addition to the continuing divide the locals and the non-locals, issues of identity, growing corruption and perceived injustice in the Garo Hills, are considered to be reasons for the violence in Meghalaya. The combined violence of the insurgent outfits in the state has shown a significant decline by 45%(from 85 to 47) in terms of incidents and killings by 41% (from 42 to 25) in 2004 as compared to the year 2003.

Mizoram
Mizoram was known as Lushai hills and the people lived their were called as Lushai. They came from northern china. The earliest Mizos who migrated to India were known as Kukis. The Lushais were the last of the Mizos tribes who migrated to India. Various ethnic groups of the Lushais identify themselves as Mizos. Lushais hardly came in contact with the Ahom kingdom. British rule brought it under their administration in 1880. In 1954 it was renamed as Mizo district of Assam by an Act of the Indian parliament. Subsequently it was made a separate state in 1987. Its area is 21,081 sq.km. and the population is 891,058.
The Mizo National Front (MNF)-led insurgency movement came to an end in 1986.The MNF transformed itself into regional political party subsequent to signing of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the government of India on June 30, 1986. It also formed the government, winning the state legislative assembly election, following the formal declaration of Mizoram as a state in 1987. Since then, no militant outfit has disrupted the overall peaceful environment prevailing in the state.
Arunachal Pradesh
This is consisted of various tribes and ethnic groups like Akas, Abors, Duflas, Miris, Mishmis and Singphos who live in different areas of NEFA. Initially it was brought under the direct control of the External Affairs Ministry, and was then transferred to the Home Ministry. In 1972 NEFA was renamed as Union Territory and subsequently made a separate state in 1987. The area of this state is 83,743 sq.km. and population is 1,091,117. There are 26 major tribes and several sub-tribes inhabit the area. Broadly, the people may be divided into three cultural groups on the basis of their socio-religious affinities, such as, Buddhists, Sun/Moon worshippers, and elementary Vaishnavites.
The two district of Tirap and Changlang in the eastern part of the state, adjoining Nagaland and Assam have been affected by Naga underground-related violence. This state faced no problems of militancy in the decades following its creation in 1987, unlike some states in the Northeast. However, insurgency has been pushed into this peaceful state, primarily by faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN), which have long created havoc in the neighbouring state of Nagaland. In Arunachal, the areas most affected now are the district of Tirap and Changlang.
Traditionally, Arunachal’s porous and un-administered border with Nagaland and Myanmar have been used by several militant groups of the Northeast in their journey to China and Myanmar. Militants found it less cumbersome to use various rivulets, especially near the Pansu Pass to transport essential items like medicines, arms and drugs through the area. Among the major objectives of these militants groups was the acquisition of military training from Myanmar’s insurgent groups.
The story of insurgency in Arunachal Pradesh is also that of the politician-insurgent nexus in the state. Till the year 2000, the NSCN-K enjoyed dominance in Tirap and Changlang and in spite of its rivalry with the Isak-Muivah faction (NSCN-IM) in Nagaland, the latter never made any forays into what was known to be a Khaplang stronghold.
In the year 2004, 41 violent incidents resulted in killing of 43 persons (extremists- 35, SF-2 and civilians-6). In 2003, 39 persons were killed (ext.31, SF-1 and civ.- 7 in 50 incidents. Arunachal Pradesh is bounded with China and hence both central and the state govt. are seriously concerned with its security.
Manipur
Manipur is known since the times of Mahabharata, but its long independent existence remained in obscurity until a powerful kingdom, led by Gharib Nawaz7 sprang up its place in 1714. The subsequent history of Manipur was essentially a history of conflicts with the Burmese. Finally it came under British rule and after 1947 Manipur became a full-fledged state under India. Its area is 22,327 sq.km. and the population is 2,388,634.
With three major ethnic groups in Manipur, its insurgency is also a primarily divided into rebel groups of the Meitei, Naga and Kuki tribes. While the Meitei insurgent’s prime objective is to free their pre-British territorial boundary from ‘Indian occupation’, Naga rebels of Manipur support the demands sovereign Nagalim (Greater Nagaland) comprising Nagaland along with the Naga-majority area of Manipur, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Myanmar. The Kukies on the other hand, support the demand of separate Kukiland for which Kukis of Myanmar are also fighting.
Manipur has numerous insurgent groups, such as, Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), United National Liberation Front (UNLF), Revolutionary Peoples Front (RPF), Peoples Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), Manipur Liberation Front Army (MLFA), Kanglei Yawol Khnna Lup (KYKL), Revolutionary Joint Committee (RJC), Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), Peoples United Liberation Front (PULF), National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K), National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-I/M), Naga Lim Guard (NLG),Kuki National Front(KNF),Kuki National Army(KNA),Kuki Defence Force(KDF),Kuki Democratic Movement (KDM),Kuki National Organisation(KNO),Kuki Security Forces(KSF), Chin Kuki Revolutionary Front(CKRF),KomRem Peoples Convention (KRPC), Zomi Revolutionary Volunteers(ZRV),Zomi Revolutionary Army(ZRA), Zomi Reunification Organisation(ZRO), and Hmar Peoples Convention(HPC).
Insurgency-related incidents in Manipur: 240 in 2007, as many as 262 in 2008 and 211 in the first five months of 2009. 46civilians were killed in 2007, 76 in 2008 and 40 in 2009(until May).8


Tripura
Tripura is comprised of Bengalis (69%) and rest of the tribal like Tripuris (50% of the total population of the tribal), Reangs, Chakmas (Budhist), Halams (Muslims-originally hailed from Kuki), Lushais, Darlongs etc. It was an independent unit under the Maharaja even during British rule. This was never under the Ahom rule. After independence, the Regent Maharani signed an agreement of merger of Tripura with the Indian Union on 15 Oct 1949 and became Union Territory in 1 Nov 1956. It attained full statehood on 21 Jan 1972. The state has the Tripura Tribal Area District Council under special provision in the Constitution of India. The area of this state is 10,492 sq. km. and the population is 3,191,168(2001 census)
The genesis of insurgency in Tripura can be traced to the massive influx of Bengali refugees from East Pakistan following partition. The indigenous people, who accounted for 95%of the population of Tripura in 1931 census, had been reduced to just 31% at the time the 1991 census. This has led to serious discontent among the tribal, who have become a minority in their own land.
In addition to land, control of trade and business, govt. jobs are now in the hands of immigrants. In order to protect their rights, some tribes formed a political front called Tripura Upajati Juba Samiti (TUJS) in June 1967. They demanded an autonomous district council under the Sixth Schedule of the constitution, adoption of Kok Borok as official language and the restoration of tribal lands allotted to non-tribal.
By 1970, some militant leaders had agreed that armed insurgency could help them secure their demands. The Tripura Sena (Tripura Army) was created. Subsequently, in Dec. 1978, The Tripura National Volunteers (TNV) was formed under the leadership of Bijoy Hrangkhal to fight for an independent Tribal State. To assuage tribal feeling, the state government passed the Tripura Tribal Area Autonomous District Council Act in 1979. However, it was strongly opposed by a section of the Bengali population. To counter the pressure from the tribal extremist, they also launched a militant organization called Amra Bengali (we are Bengali). Consequently, violent communal clashes broke out in several parts of the state in which about 1,800 people lost their lives and over 3,600 dwellings were burnt. In June 1980, the army was inducted in the state, and the situation was brought under control.
The TNV, with its stronghold in the Jampui area bordering Mizoram, had close links with the Mizo National Front (MNF). But with the signing of the Mizo Accord in 1986 and the subsequent surrender of the MNF to the authorities, the TNV’s ability to continue the armed struggle was severely curbed. On Aug 12, 1988, the TNV signed a memorandum of Settlement with the state govt. and its members laid down arms and came over-ground. The main point of the agreement was the restoration of alienated lands to the tribal people. However, there were persistent complain that the agreement had not been implemented. New militant outfits had since come into being and there has been a resurgence of militancy in the state.9
Insurgency in this background has been the reality in all these states of this region. It affects the life of people of this region in many ways including economic, social, security, employment etc. There are many factors or reasons behind the insurgency. Let us see those factors:
Factors leading to the rise of Insurgency in Northeast
Insurgency has been constantly raising its heads in this region since the beginning of independence. A number of factors together are responsible for rising/continuing of insurgency in the Northeast region, such as:
Ethnic
In these immensely diverse and complicated ethnicities, discord relating to local resources, land, forest, etc. have been there. Inter-tribal flare-ups have been quite common – clashes between Kukis and Nagas, Maities and Pangans, Kukis and Zomis, Khasis and Garos, Bodos and Santhals etc., apart from these inter and intra-tribal conflicts, the Nagas launched a movement for self-determination which led to the rise of insurgency spearheaded by two main formations – NSCN (I/M) and NSCN (K). Largely owing to the Naga separatist movement, today, there are plethora of ethnic insurgent formations demanding self-determination and autonomy. The NSCN (I/M) and NSCN (K) apart, other major insurgent groups are: PLA, UNLF, PREPAK, KYKL – All Meitis, KNA – Thadou Kuki, ULFA-Assamese, NDFB-Bodos, NKFT, ATTF-Tripurri, HPC, ANVC-Garos etc.10
The turmoil in the Northeast is substantially linked to ethnic political aspirations, fierce pride in distinct cultural-heritage and the vehemence to protect ethnic identities, territories and resources. This psychology is exacerbated by the geography of the region and the demographic currents, a tenuous land link with the rest of the country, international borders, illegal immigration, narcotic traffic, smuggling of weapons etc.
Connectivity
The Northeast region spread over 255,000 sq.km., has a relatively a small population of about 40 millions. The partition of the country led to its being virtually cut-off from the rest of the country. The severance of traditional trade routes and loss of traditional markets resulted in severe market disruptions. In the post-independence era, the focus of development was on improving links with the rest of India involving a tedious and a long journey through the so-called ‘chicken’s neck’. This made the region’s trade with mainland markets more expensive. Recent thinking has sought to encourage trade between Northeast and the countries surrounding it as a means to develop to promote development of the region. Proponents of this line of thinking feel that transportation to and from the surrounding countries would be far less than to and from the rest of the country. Hence stringer economic ties with these countries would be beneficial for the Northeast region.11
The region has mix of rail, road and sea routes infrastructure. However, since the facilities straddle different countries, the complexities of traversing international boundaries have stood in the way of development of a sound and efficient transport network.
The two main highways run parallel to the Brahmaputra on its north and south banks. These function as trunk routes with extension to the other parts of the region. As regard railway system, the partition of India has disrupted the corridors ran through Bangladesh. The corridor through Silliguri is now the only one providing a rail link with the rest of India. The trans hills section connects with the Barak Valley (Assam) and short extension provide links to Tripura. The states like Arunachal, Nagaland (except the periphery of Dima pur), Mizoram, Manipur and Meghalaya do not have even a single inch of railway line. However, the old meter gauge line from Silliguri to Tinsukia has been converted to broad gauge.
The lack of infrastructures pertaining to communication, connectivity and transportation is providing the supporting/favorable base to the insurgents in terms of hideouts, training/grouping and the area to escape from the police operation, apart from isolation of the people from the main stream of the nation. The Northeast region connected with the rest of India by a narrow chicken’s-neck at the Silliguri corridor – merely 22 km. wide between Bangladesh and Nepal/Bhutan – is a serious concern for the national security in the present internal/external scenario of security threats.
External
Northeast is the frontline area bounded by China, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Bhutan. History shows that the neighbouring countries have also played vital role in encouraging insurgency in this region, deliberately or otherwise. Initially China, for ideological/strategic purpose, was actively involved in the region till 1970. Subsequently Bangladesh and Myanmar, for one or the other reason, are also responsible for the same.
Bangladesh lies contiguous to India’s sensitive Northeast, which has been the focus of destabilization, through anti-Indian insurgencies. A number of important leaders of Indian insurgent groups staying in Bangladesh, some with their families. These include Arabind Rajkhowa, Parash Barua etc. (ULFA), Ranjan Daimary (NDFB), Julius Dorphang (HNLC), Dilash Marak (ANVC), B. Debbarma (NLFT), J. Singh (KLO), RK Meghan (UNLF), MM Ngouba etc. (PLA), and Ranjit Debbarma (ATTF).12 Most of such leaders use Bangladesh passports. There are a number of training camps of the Indian insurgents in Bangladesh. Moreover, Bangladesh has emerged as a conduit for flow of sophisticated arms and explosives to insurgents. The Northeast insurgents receive consignment of arms from Singapore, Thailand, Myanmar and China via Bangladesh territory.
Despite India’s repeated request Bangladesh is not co-operating and persistently denied that the Indian militant groups are operating from Bangladesh territory. Border between India and Bangladesh is such that can not be easily managed due to difficulty in identification of anti-Indian elements in absence of identity cards as the culture, language, dresses etc. of people of both the sides are similar. Besides, Bangladesh has been rejecting India’s proposal for joint inspection of training camps and the identification of insurgents on the border.
As regards Myanmar which shares a 1463 km. long porous border with Northeast region, the main ethnic groups of this country – Chin, Shan, Mon, Arakan, Kachin and Karen – are involved in the armed separatist movements. These ethnic diversities cut across international boundaries and can have an adverse impact on regional security. The counter insurgency operations by Myanmar’s security forces have been harsh, which led the refugee exodus to Thailand and India. Militant outfits like NSCN of Nagaland, UNKF OF Manipur, PDF of Tripura and UNLF OF Assam are operating in conjunction with Indo-Myanmar Revolution Front along the Indo-Myanmar border.
Indian militant outfits have set up bases in western Myanmar, beyond the reach of the Indian army. They also use the north Myanmar corridor to reach China for training and weapons. In the mid-1990 the Myanmar army participated in joint operation with India. However it pulled out midway because the Indian govt., in the meanwhile, awarded Nehru Peace Prize to Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of pro-democracy movement in Myanmar.
Moreover, the flourishing narcotics trade along India’s border with Myanmar is helping the insurgent groups to procure arms for their secessionist campaigns.
The role of Bhutan, in this context, has been positive in favour of India. When a series of operations launched by Indian security forces, the insurgents started going deep into Bhutan. The Bhutan govt., immediately on 15 Dec. 2003, launched a major offensive against the Assam armed groups hiding in their jungle in Bhutan. About 1,000 of them were either killed or captured and another 1,000 fled the country. In this operation the son of the king of Bhutan had also taken part and injured.
Migration
The demographic growth of Assam over the course of the twentieth century is the highest recorded by any region in the Indian sub-continent. Between 1901 and 1991, the population of India grew by 354%. In contrast, the population of Assam expanded by 676% - from 3.3 million to 22.3 million. Most of the difference between the rate of population growth in Assam and that of India as a whole can be attributed to the unprecedented migration of population from other regions to Assam-particularly from the densely populated neighbouring plains of East Bengal (later East Pakistan and Bangladesh). It is estimated that only about half the population of Assam in 1971 were descendants of the residents of the current territory of Assam in 1901.13 As regards Tripura, the indigenous tribal constituted 70% of the population in 1901. Immigration reduced that proportion to a bare 30% in 1991.
This demographic influx has had adverse effects on the delicate ethnic balance within the population. It has, overtime, created a deep sense of social and cultural insecurity among indigenous people and has threatened their political leverage. In a state characterized by increasing unemployment, immigration is seen as directly reducing the labour market earning opportunities for indigenous people.
This situation had created student led mass movement in Assam in 1979-84 against illegal immigration which further created major social and political upheaval and brought the problem into a sharp focus. The same situation had forced/encouraged misguided people to start/join ULFA in Assam and Tribal militia in Tripura. Besides, the Accord signed between govt. and leaders of the Assam movement in1985 effectively legitimized all immigration entering Assam before 24 Dec. 1971. Only those entering illegally after that date were liable for deportation. Hence, migration, indeed, is a serious problem in the Northeast region. People have the feeling that they are becoming minority in their home - land.
Economic
As regards economic factor, according to Alokesh Barua and Arindam Bandyopadhyay, “ A view commonly shared by many in the Northeast is that the development process has failed to integrate the economy of the Northeast with Indian mainstream and as a result, the region has been economically stagnating for long. Economic stagnation, it is argued, has been solely responsible for rising poverty, unemployment and a fall in the general well-being of the people.”14
Supporting the same view in other words Gulshan Sachdeva says, in this context, that “ The present economic policy framework for the North east region is based on its political economy and a cultural approach, adjusted with regional planning models. It is implemented mainly through the Planning Commission and the Northeastern Council. Despite huge financial investment this has failed to produce the desired results.”15
The argument is stressed upon, one step further, in constructing an in-built reasoning that the lack of development and industrialization has resulted in growing relative economic disparity of the region vis-à-vis the national average. This rising disparity, it is further alleged, has led to the growing sense of alienation among the people and has manifested itself in various forms of separatist movements in the region. The basic foundation of these movements thus, is an increasingly saleable theory of under development based on the assumption that the central govt. has been neglecting the region since independence, causing much of its present-day economic woes.
The whole region hardly has any industry other than the oil and petroleum as well as tea gardens, which were developed by the British rule for their self-interest. The region is full of various resources, which could be used for economic progress of the region. Agriculture and cottage industries have limited scope due to inadequate plain land and the market for selling their local products. Decreasing income resources and increasing population result into unemployment and insurgency.
Conclusion
This region provides a classical case of an ethnic cauldron that has been kept boiling over centuries by the contradictory processes of assimilation and preservation of ethnic identity. The most striking feature of the social order of the region is perhaps its heterogeneity. Three major groups inhibit the region; the hill tribes who belong to the Mongoloid stock, the plains tribes and the non-tribal population of the plains whose roots are traced to the Aryans, Negroid or Dravidians. These groups exhibit tremendous diversity in terms of race (probably greater variety than in any other part of the globe); language (as many as 420 languages and dialects); and religion (Animism, Hinduism, Buddhism, Islam and Christianity). Extraordinary ethnic, cultural, religious and linguistic diversity characterizes this hill-forest region, which has more than 160 Scheduled Tribes (These are the unique tribal communities recognised under Article 342 of the Indian Constitution). The region shares about 263,000 sq.km. (98%) of its boundary with the countries like Bangladesh, China, Myanmar and Bhutan, which provides ideal terrain for guerilla warfare. Further, the narrow Silliguri corridor connecting this region with the mainstream is strategically sensitive.
The recent Chinese frequent incursions on the line of control and its recent objections on the visit of Prime Minster, Manmohan Singh and Dalai Lama to Arunachal Pradesh has cautioned the governments of India to be careful about the Northeast in general and Arunachal in particular. In view of Chinese territorial claim over Arunachal Pradesh, it has strategically become more significant as it is the largest frontline state of the region in terms of area, which has long boundary with China.
However, now the Northeast region is no longer as backward/isolated/ turmoil/lack of communication as used to be earlier as the situation all over the area is changing fast.
Although, geographical location can not be changed but the same can be developed strategically. Therefore, realising the lack of communication during the war with China in 1962, the govt. of India has subsetequently constructed national highway from Delhi to Gauhati and three bridges - over Ganga at Mokamah (Bihar)/Bramhputra at Gauhati/place near Nowgaon (Assam)- passing through the narrow Silliguri corridor. The meter gauge railway line has also been converted into broad gauge. Besides, railway line has also been extended in the hilly-forest area from Dharam Nager to Agertalla (Tripura).
Christian missionary, as earlier used to be criticized for creating anti-India sentiments amongst the tribal in the region, is no longer in practice now. They are, in fact, being appreciated for improving literacy in the region. Apart from national/secular/liberal political parties, the religion/tribal-based parties are also becoming mass-based political units to represent local socio-religious/ethnic/orthodox groups of people along with regional parties. Students of this region are getting education in various cities of mainstream India. Youth are joining all India service and the armed forces. Migration, now, is not a serious problem as used to be earlier. Inter-tribal clashes, except in a few area, is not seen as threat on social security. The local products are getting market outside the region. Present government of Bangladesh has assured India to act against the insurgents/anti-India elements hiding there. Now, in the changing global strategic scenario, Myanmar and China are no longer the hub of training camps/hideouts of the Northeast insurgents.
The total number of insurgents in all these states of the Northeast region is merely about 18,000 and weapon holding cadres about 9,000. Overall insurgent violence in the Northeast declined by about 19% in the year 2004 as compared to the previous year. The killing of the civilian/security forces also decreased by 15% during the same period. After 2004, the situation is further improved. Meanwhile, nine insurgent groups of the Northeast have already suspended operations by signing ceasefire agreement with the government. Moreover, at the grass-root level, more than 71% villages of the region are crime free. Now, except a few parts of Assam and Manipur, the situation in the region, by enlarge, is under control. Even the situation in Assam and Manipur, it is not as turmoil as used to be earlier.
Neither a single factor alone is responsible for rising of insurgency, nor any single remedial measure can cure it. It is a centuries old complex issue. Such issues take time to settle. Therefore, Suitable measures along with sufficient time need to be consistently followed. A lot of remedial actions are taken, a lot more are in pipelines and further initiatives are at the planning stage. This is a long term process.
Overall situation in the region appears to be satisfactory. It is argued that it is, at least almost similar to the rest of the country. If the critics who do not agree with this view and they argue that the present day Northeast region is still a threat to the national security, then the same can be said about any other region of the country also. Today Kashmir, terrorism and Naxalites are, indeed, the much bigger threats to the internal dimension of national security than the insurgency in the Northeast region.